This understanding involves describing the chance of familiar events as likely or unlikely by considering possible outcomes and whether the conditions make an event occur more often or less often than its alternative. It distinguishes “likely” from certain and “unlikely” from impossible, without assigning numerical probabilities, fractions, or odds; this qualitative reasoning provides a foundation for comparing probabilities more formally later.
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To describe how likely an event is, think about what could happen and compare the event with its alternative.
Example:
A bag has many yellow blocks and just one green block. You close your eyes and take out one block.
Step 1: Name the event.
The event is: “You take out a yellow block.”
Step 2: Think about the possible outcomes.
You could take out a yellow block or a green block.
Step 3: Compare the choices.
There are more yellow blocks than green blocks, so taking out a yellow block should happen more often.
Step 4: Describe the event.
Taking out a yellow block is likely.
It is not certain, because you could still take out the green block. Taking out a green block is unlikely, because there is only one green block, but it is still possible.
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