Skill: Describe events as likely or unlikely informally

Explanation and Free Practice Resources

An event is described as likely when it is expected to happen and unlikely when it is not expected to happen, based on the possible outcomes of a familiar chance situation; an unlikely event can still occur. This is a qualitative comparison of chance, not a calculation of numerical probability or an analysis of exact ratios, sample spaces, or independent events.

Detailed Explanation: Describe events as likely or unlikely informally

When we talk about chance:

  • Likely means we expect something to happen.
  • Unlikely means we do not expect it to happen.
  • An unlikely event can still happen.

Example:
A bag has many blue blocks and only one red block. You close your eyes and pick one block.

  1. Think about what is in the bag. There are many blue blocks, so picking blue is expected.
  2. Say: Picking a blue block is likely.
  3. There is only one red block, so picking red is not expected.
  4. Say: Picking a red block is unlikely.
  5. Remember: Unlikely does not mean impossible. You could still pick the red block.

So, we describe an event by asking: Do I expect it to happen, or do I not expect it to happen?

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Likelihood - Bag - Likely Or Unlikely


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